Challenging the myth of Renewables
The ICSF asserts that the aspiration of an energy transition in Ireland to 80% renewables, using current technology, is fatally flawed under the laws of economics and electrical engineering. The proof lies in the ICSF Report “Ireland’s Renewable Energy Targets for 2030 – A Reality Check”, by its international energy adviser, Douglas Pollock.
The Pollock Report is linked here and there is also an associated interpretive document linked here and a non-technical summary linked here
The Report shows that electricity prices rise inexorably with higher levels of renewables on the grid; international experience unambiguously proves that. It is a myth that high levels of renewables will reduce electricity prices.
Ireland already has 50% more renewable capacity than the average load demand.
Adding further renewables will inevitably lead to greater system instability and inefficiency of both renewable and conventional generation as they struggle to maintain a 24/7 minute-by-minute balance of supply and demand on the grid.
Intermittent renewables are non-dispatchable and non-synchronous, so conventional plant has to be on constant standby, operating very inefficiently, to compensate for that intermittency and to provide system inertia in case of faults. Such limitations were demonstrated in the recent Iberian blackout.
Consequently, as explained in the Pollock Report, quadrupling the capacity of renewables envisaged under the 2024 Climate Action Plan would lead to a highly unstable grid with ever-increasing risks of brownouts, and lead to electricity prices at multiples of those prevailing now. Neither would the aspired CO2 emissions reduction be achieved under the plan.
The Irish situation is particularly acute, as Ireland still operates effectively as an all-island grid, not synchronized with the UK or French grids, thus making the Irish grid even more vulnerable to frequency instability resulting from high levels of renewables. Meanwhile the growing reliance on electricity imports also increases Ireland’s energy security risks. Ireland is unwittingly entering a serious energy crisis.
So how can electricity prices be reduced?
To achieve a reduction in electricity prices, ICSF suggests that addition of any further renewables should be paused.
The counter-intuitive but sound strategy is to urgently invest more in high-efficiency and highly-flexible gas-fired power generation. Besides stabilizing prices, these rotating machines will also stabilize the grid, giving Ireland the essential, reliable and sustainable energy supply it needs for the medium and longer term, with minimal environmental footprint.
How can security of energy supply be assured?
Renewables can reduce energy imports, but can never provide adequate security of supply. It is a fundamental responsibility of a government to provide its citizens and industries with secure, affordable and sustainable energy into the future. The current energy policy, excessively over-reliant on renewables, is failing in that responsibility.
The ICSF therefore suggests that the pragmatic policy of rebalancing towards flexible gas-fired generation needs to be complemented by urgently constructing an LNG import terminal with gas storage to provide the necessary security of supply and competitive gas purchasing power internationally. As the Corrib field supply rapidly dwindles, Ireland simply cannot afford to be reliant on gas imports from the UK, which is not self-sufficient in gas. Moreover, Irish imports via undersea gas pipelines would take months to repair in the case of any faults.
Conclusion
The ICSF concludes Ireland is unwittingly entering a serious energy crisis; green policy must give way to energy pragmatism. Therefore an immediate Irish energy policy re-direction is warranted, pausing renewables and re-focusing on flexible clean gas-fired power generation with LNG storage.
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