The Climate has always Changed

Earth’s climate has continually changed over its 4.5 billion-year history. In recent millennia and centuries, since the most recent Interglacial, there have been warm periods (such as in the Medieval, Roman and Minoan Warming periods), with the coldest period within that timescale being the Little Ice Age, which ended about 1850. Since then, the planet has beneficially warmed by about 1.3-1.4°C.

Furthermore, the current rate of rise of global temperature is not unprecedented; centennial, millennial and Paleoclimatic records infer similar rates of temperature rise in previous warming periods. The geological records demonstrate no causal link between CO2 and temperature; rather that CO2 changes followed global temperature changes. CO2 was not the significant climate driver at any time in geological history.

Despite the €/$ billions spent by the UN for over 35 years on IPPC Reports, there is no experimental proof of the Greenhouse Effect as in the real world, indicating a generic unwillingness by their climate scientists to face reality. Laboratory-scale experiments under ideal non-representative conditions carry little weight.

Can we predict our future Climate?

Global satellite temperature observations – the most accurate available - over the last 46 years indicate an average temperature increase of about 0.15°C per decade, which if continued, points to a further temperature rise of about 1.1°C by 2100, probably less as the greenhouse effect reaches saturation. In that way, the 2°C limit (since pre-Industrial) espoused in the Paris Agreement, may be exceeded, but will still be less than in the peaks of the Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warming Periods, in which civilisation thrived.

Part of this modern warming has likely been caused by anthropogenic GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions; observations also indicate that there are solar-related and other natural influences on earth’s climate, the relative magnitudes of these being comparable to, or possibly even greater than, those of GHG.

Recent research (by Professor Ray Bates and others) and observations indicate significantly lower climate sensitivity (of less than 1ºC for doubling of the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) level), significantly less than predicted by IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The recent work of Prof Nicola Scafetta and others convincingly shows that about half of the warming since 1850 is likely solar and planetary-related, and the remainder, which can be attributed to CO2, fits neatly with Prof Ray Bates’ findings.

Most IPCC model projections (most particularly the oft-quoted “RCP8.5” scenario), are greatly exaggerated, and do not form a valid basis for policymaking.

In fact, there is a logarithmically-decreasing influence of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) as a GHG as its atmospheric concentration further increases; it is now almost in saturation. Thus, adding more CO2 will cause only minimal anthropogenic further warming (an ever-decreasing fraction of the 1ºC further rise mentioned above).  

Looking at the opposite situation, reducing future CO2 emissions through mitigation will have almost imperceptible impact on climate; reaching Net-Zero globally, if ever achieved, would avert only 0.28ºC temperature rise by 2050. For Ireland alone, if Net Zero was achieved by 2050, the temperature rise averted would therefore be about 0.003ºC, which accords with estimates by the Climate Change Advisory Council.

Is Sea Level Rise a problem?

One hundred years of real-world tide gauge readings indicate an average linear rate of rise of only 1-2 mm/year, while some 30 years of satellite altimetry data indicates a rate of rise of about 3mm/year, neither dataset showing evidence of acceleration. Even taking the higher figure implies a max 25cm further rise by 2100, of little relevance.  

More generally regarding the oceans, the Pacific islands are not disappearing, many are actually growing. There are no major issues with ocean warming (beyond localised areas) nor of ocean acidity, and coral reefs (particularly the Great Barrier Reef) are shown to recover naturally.

Are there more Weather Extremes?

The IPCC in its recent AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report) WG1 (Working Group 1 Report) found no statistical trends of increasing flooding, drought (meteorological or hydrological), wildfires, tropical cyclones, winter storms, thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, lightning or extreme winds. There was some evidence of increasing heat-waves, heavy precipitation and droughts (ecological and agricultural), not surprisingly, given a mildly warmer planet.

Despite almost daily media hysteria, it is debatable whether recent extreme weather trends are actually worse than in the past decades or centuries. Frequently-quoted “attribution studies” have been demonstrated to be systematically flawed from a statistical perspective. The number of lives lost in extreme weather events has declined significantly over time, confirming the benefit of adaptation policies.

Is the Cryosphere in decline?

The real-world observations show that Arctic ice has declined since 1979, but has been broadly stable since 2007; polar bears are thriving. The Greenland ice sheet status is similar to that of the 1880s; both the Arctic and Greenland were warmer in past centuries. The Antarctic continues broadly stable at very cold temperatures. Naturally-occurring glacier retreat regularly reveals vegetation and historical artefacts from previous warm periods.  

Submissions to the IPCC

Some ICSF members acted as Expert Reviewers of the IPCC AR6 WG1 Report, and ICSF later summarised significant misrepresentations in the Summary for Policymakers in a letter to Dr Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC, in October 2021 linked here. No IPCC response was received, illustrating its disdain for dialogue.

When the IPCC released the AR6 Synthesis Report in March 2023, ICSF made a detailed submission to the Irish Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications (DECC), summarising the serious flaws in the Synthesis Report, together with further comments on the many inconsistencies of the CAP23 (Climate Action Plan 2023) linked here. No DECC response was received.

The CLINTEL group also submitted to IPCC a major independent review “The Frozen Climate Views of the IPCC”demonstrating significant scientific errors and alarmist bias throughout AR6, linked here. IPCC made no response.

So are mitigation policies a waste of money? 

The estimated costs of an Irish aspired 51% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, as envisaged in the Irish Climate Action Plans, was estimated by the IMF as €200bn by 2030, equating to around €100,000 per household between now and then.

The costs beyond 2030 of moving to Net Zero globally would be exponentially higher, all to avert only a paltry 0.28ºC GHG-related temperature rise by 2050.  

Put simply, the cost/benefit of mitigation seen at both Irish and global levels is absurd; rather, adaptation to whatever climate changes occur in the coming decades is the pragmatic solution.

Overall conclusion

IPCC Reporting is exaggerated and biased and provides no reasonable basis for climate policy. Contrary to its assertion, there is no objective evidence of a “climate crisis” or of any “climate tipping points”.

Climate mitigation is extremely expensive and generally pointless (except where there are associated energy efficiency gains). Instead, there should be a focus on prudent adaptation to whatever modest changes in climate occur in the coming decades.

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